FXStreet's account of a Societe Generale research note says USD/CAD could remain in a wide range over the next decade, citing growth and interest-rate gaps between the economies.
Chief Currency Strategist Kit Juckes expects the U.S. dollar to trade between CA$1.20 and CA$1.45 per US$1 against the Canadian dollar over the next decade, FXStreet reported. He points to the countries’ growth prospects and the gap between their two-year interest rates. FXStreet alone reported a caveat that a major shock could alter the range. The accounts also describe a move below CA$1.35 as dependent on firmer Canadian economic readings or a more favorable geopolitical backdrop.
The International Monetary Fund’s Oct. 13 World Economic Outlook projects U.S. real gross domestic product growth of 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, compared with 1.1% in Canada in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. The U.S. growth advantage narrows from 1.2 percentage points this year to 0.6 percentage point next year. From its July update, the IMF left both Canadian forecasts unchanged and raised its 2027 U.S. projection by 0.1 percentage point.
Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) on Oct. 20 forecast real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, lowering its outlook from June. The PBO linked the downgrade to U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures, which it said weigh on exports and business investment. It expects growth to remain subdued through the first half of 2027. The PBO’s projections are below the IMF’s forecasts for Canadian growth in both years.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight-rate target at 2.25% on Sept. 2. It is scheduled to announce its next rate decision and publish a Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 9:45 a.m. ET (13:45 UTC). Statistics Canada reported that July GDP by industry was unchanged, while an advance estimate pointed to 0.2% growth in August; the official August release is due Oct. 30.
