Solana's Loyal Holders Surrender: LTH Capitulation Hits 3-Year Extreme as SOL Teeters Toward $70

With important indicators flashing three-year lows, Solana (SOL) is experiencing strong long-term holder (LTH) capitulation. As formerly inactive wallets come to life and dump coins at a loss, reflecting the damaging pattern seen in May 2022, liveliness has increased dramatically. The LTH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) switched negative on January 24, 2026, pointing to general psychological resignation and setting off aggressive distribution following a failed price recovery attempt.

On-chain data shows a gloomy view of holder weariness: the proportion of profitable supply has dropped to only 15%—the lowest since November 2022—implying most remaining sellers are long-term holders, not late-cycle profit-takers. This dynamic lowers traditional "winner" selling pressure but raises exhaust-driven dumps—particularly as macro circumstances remain unfavorable. The rapid increase in Liveliness since late January highlights a obvious loss of faith among Solana's most loyal followers.

Following a horrific 39% monthly decline from recent highs close to $88, locked in a three-week downward trend, SOL is currently trading between $80 and $86 and testing crucial $79 support. A resolute break below opens the door to greater suffering toward $70 (1.786 Fibonacci extension), while a recovery hold above $79–$88 might start a relief rally toward $95 and so temporarily negate the bearish prediction. Historical parallels indicate this capitulation stage could prolong the negative grind before any significant bottom emerges without a rapid resurgence in demand.