This month's release provides data for March, the last month of the fiscal year just ended. At the time of the March Budget, the OBR made a forecast of the full fiscal year total of £90.2bn for the key PSNBex measure. In the 11 months to February the cumulative deficit was £81.8bn.
If there were no improvement at all in March compared to a year earlier then the March deficit would be £7.8bn, implying a full fiscal year deficit of £89.6bn, so just a little lower than the OBR forecast, says Societe Generale. However, there will have been a minor underlying improvement of about £1bn so predict a March deficit of £6.8bn.
The full 2014-15 fiscal year outcome would then be £88.6bn compared to £98.5bn in the previous fiscal year, added Societe Generale.
This will allow the Chancellor to say that progress continues to be made in the fiscal consolidation although the March Budget made it clear that the task is only halfway to completion.
