A New York Times/Siena survey shows a virtual dead heat in South Carolina’s Senate race, giving Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews 48% apiece ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
The Siena Research Institute said Graham’s advantage was less than one percentage point before rounding. The poll interviewed 707 likely voters from Oct. 19 to Oct. 26 and reported a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. That margin is larger than Graham’s stated edge, so the survey does not establish a clear leader. Siena Research Institute Executive Director Don Levy said in the release that “South Carolina now jumps to centerstage.”
Other recent polls also put Graham ahead. A South Carolina Policy Council survey conducted by Targoz Market Research found her leading Andrews 47% to 46% among 895 likely voters. Fieldwork ran from Oct. 16 to Oct. 25, with a reported margin of error of 3.21 percentage points. The Citadel’s Oct. 27 release described Graham as leading by four points in a survey of 1,009 registered voters conducted before the second week of early voting.
An Andrews victory would make her the first Democrat elected by South Carolina voters to the Senate since Fritz Hollings won reelection in 1998. Federal Election Commission results show Hollings received 52.68% of the vote, or 562,791 votes. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham on July 13 to fill the vacancy created by Lindsey Graham’s death. She is to serve until Jan. 3, 2027, with voters choosing her successor in the general election.
The Associated Press reported that the seat is important to Republican efforts to preserve their Senate majority. South Carolina’s 2024 presidential vote went 58.2% to Donald Trump, according to state election results. The Senate election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
