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The Bank of Korea (BOK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5% on Thursday, matching market expectations as policymakers remain cautious about rising inflation risks and global economic uncertainty linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
The latest policy meeting marked the first under newly appointed BOK Governor Shin Hyun-Song, who officially took office last month. During his confirmation process, Shin expressed a hawkish stance on monetary policy, highlighting concerns that higher global energy prices caused by the Iran-related conflict could push inflation higher in South Korea. Concerns surrounding the weakening South Korean won also contributed to expectations that the central bank may tighten policy later this year.
Despite global uncertainty, South Korea’s economy has shown resilience in recent months, largely supported by strong growth in the semiconductor and chip manufacturing sector. Demand driven by artificial intelligence technologies has significantly boosted the country’s chip exports, providing the economy with additional momentum.
However, analysts note that the broader domestic economy remains relatively weak outside the technology sector. Consumer demand and other industries continue to face challenges, which could limit how aggressively the Bank of Korea raises interest rates in the future.
The BOK last reduced interest rates in May 2025 and has since maintained a cautious approach toward further policy adjustments. Economists at Capital Economics said any future tightening cycle is expected to remain gradual, as inflation may stay above the central bank’s target only temporarily.
South Korea’s inflation rate has increased over the past two months, although government price control measures have helped reduce the impact on consumers. Meanwhile, the USD/KRW exchange rate remained closely watched by investors as currency volatility continues to affect market sentiment.
The Bank of Korea’s next policy decisions will likely depend on inflation trends, energy prices, currency movements, and the performance of the country’s export-driven economy throughout 2026.
