Gold Price Hits Seven-Week High as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fade and Hormuz Deal Hopes Grow

Gold prices climbed for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, reaching their highest level in seven weeks as easing concerns over global energy supplies weakened the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. The rally was fueled by growing optimism that a diplomatic agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing inflation risks and boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) rose 1.1% to $4,293.94 an ounce after touching an intraday high of $4,304.15. Gold futures also gained 1.1% to $4,353.12. Other precious metals followed the upward trend, with silver (XAG/USD) advancing 0.5% to $62.39 and platinum (XPT/USD) jumping 2.3% to $1,774.68.

Investor sentiment improved after reports indicated that Iran and Oman were nearing an agreement aimed at easing the five-month conflict between Tehran and Washington. According to Reuters, the proposed deal would give Iran authority over vessels entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of smoother energy shipments pushed oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns.

Lower oil prices have also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates aggressively. Markets now estimate a 55% chance of a September rate hike, down from 67% earlier this week. Falling Treasury yields and a softer U.S. dollar further supported gold prices by making the metal more attractive to international buyers.

Despite the strong rally, investors remain focused on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide fresh insight into the Fed's next policy move. Earlier this week, the ADP National Employment Report showed that private-sector hiring slowed in July, reinforcing expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy outlook.

Analysts at ANZ said the combination of easing inflation fears and lower expectations for additional Fed tightening helped accelerate gold's gains. They also noted that the rally strengthened after bullion broke above a key technical resistance level. However, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to raise interest rates if inflation fails to move sustainably toward the central bank's 2% target, suggesting that future policy decisions will remain data dependent.