South Korean industrial production is likely to have grown further last month following a large rebound in May. South Korea’s exports rebounded considerably in June that would lead to strong industrial production. Even if the significant part of the rebound in export in June was seen in May’s industrial production figures, there might be certain positive effects left for June’s industrial production data, said Societe Generale in a research note.
On a year-on-year basis, industrial production is likely to have slowed significantly from May, partly because of base effects. Industrial output had grown 1.9 percent on sequential basis in June 2015. The breakdown by sectors would indicate a widespread rebound throughout electronics and non-electronics. With the continued uncertainties in the outlook of global economy, it is unlikely that the recent favorable momentum in exports and industrial production would continue in this summer, according to Societe Generale.
“We stick to our base scenario of one more 25bp BoK rate cut,” added Societe Generale.
