Spain's catalan elections probably sees greater uncertainity

After the non-binding referendum on independence held last November, the Catalan proindependence parties decided on a roadmap towards independence. The first step of this roadmap lies in the regional elections which are structured to serve as a plebiscite. 

The election result remains too close to call. Indeed, some polls point to a 2-3 seat majority for the pro-independence parties, Junt per SI with the radical-left CUP, while according to other polls these parties would fall short of an absolute majority. 

In the latter case, the position of Cataluña sí que es Pot, which has been ambiguous about independence so far, would be decisive. In any case, all polls have so far pointed to a lack of majority in terms of the number of votes for the pro-independence parties. 

Finally, given the double meaning of the vote, one should view these polls with even greater caution than usual - even more so as more than a quarterof the Catalan population remains undecided. However, if the pro-independence parties win a majority, the new Catalan government is likely to proceed according to its roadmap established at the end of March, aiming at independence by 2017. 

But according to Societe Generale, greater autonomy remains more likely than independence given that, 
The Constitution prevents unilateral secession 
The Spanish government would never accept losing close to 20% of its GDP (and 16% of its population); and 
There would be dramatic economic consequences. 

However, a victory for the proindependence parties would create considerable political and economic uncertainty. Medium term, greater autonomy would put at risk the recent push for harmonisation and integration of the highly fragmented Spanish economy.