Standard Chartered maintains neutral short-term, overweight medium-term weightings on INR
Standard Chartered notes its views as follows.... We scaled back our short-term weighting on the Indian rupee (INR) to Neutral from Overweight recently, but maintain our medium-term Overweight FX weighting. We expect ren…
We scaled back our short-term weighting on the Indian rupee (INR) to Neutral from Overweight recently, but maintain our medium-term Overweight FX weighting.
We expect renewed volatility in capital inflows to emerging-market local-currency bonds in the short term as the Fed prepares to hike policy rates.
Market participants therefore risk getting caught long INR in the April-June period amid broad USD strength, ongoing RBI intervention and the lack of seasonal factors that supported the INR in Q1.
However, we expect portfolio inflows to remain robust in the medium term given improvements in the macro environment and high market expectations.
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