Statistic base effects to support Poland's Q3 data

In Poland, far weaker growth is observed in the retail sales in recent months, both in nominal and real terms. In industrial production, a moderate growth was seen, which is modestly better than that of Q2.

"We expect the Q3'15 GDP growth flash estimate to come in at 3.4% yoy (NSA).  In addition, we expect an acceleration in growth in investment (7.5% yoy, up from 6.4% in Q2'15), owing to the supportive low interest rate environment", estimates Societe Generale.

Q3 data would be supported by the statistic base effect. Because of solid and continuing wages growth, private consumption likely backed GDP growth significantly in the third quarter.