Stratfor Forecasts Global Trade Offensive and Retaliation to Shape Key Geopolitical Trends in Second Quarter of 2018

AUSTIN, Texas, March 12, 2018 -- Stratfor, the world’s leading geopolitical intelligence platform, forecasts a U.S.-led global trade offensive, retaliation and associated repercussions to primarily shape international affairs in the second quarter of 2018. Stratfor’s 2018 Second-Quarter Forecast, designed to help companies, governments and globally engaged individuals stay focused on strategic plans while identifying key geopolitical risks and opportunities, builds upon Stratfor’s 2018 Annual Forecast released at the beginning of the year.

“The White House is ready to take aim at the global economy this quarter and the bull’s-eye is sitting squarely on Beijing,” said Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon, noting that many nations, to include some U.S. allies, will retaliate by targeting politically sensitive sectors. “In addition to imposing its own restrictions on some U.S. agricultural goods, Beijing is likely to selectively apply regulatory pressure on American companies with stakes in China.”

Stratfor’s forecast for the second quarter identifies the key geopolitical trends that will fundamentally shape and constrain the actions of both nations and industries in the months ahead. Updated with strategic analysis and other guidance throughout the year on Stratfor Worldview, the forecasts helps individual, team and enterprise members cut through daily information noise and focus on what’s truly significant versus merely important.

Additional developments Stratfor forecasts for the second quarter include:

• Tension between the United States and China will spike, putting businesses caught in the fray at risk.
• The development of disruptive weapons technology among the United States, China and Russia will further degrade the world’s arms control treaties.
• Building upon a brief détente, South Korea will try to persuade the United States and North Korea to reconcile their positions on denuclearization.
• Debate over eurozone reforms will expose the deeper divides threatening European unity.
• Trade tensions will mar Washington’s rocky relationship with Brazil over how to manage Venezuela’s economic crisis.
• China’s wide maritime reach will draw India into closer defense cooperation with the United States, Japan and Australia.
• Turkey will push its troops deeper into northern Syria and Iraq while laying claim to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

The complete 2018 Second-Quarter Forecast is now available on Stratfor Worldview. Accurate calls from the 2018 Annual Forecast thus far include: the Trump administration launching its protectionist trade agenda, Chinese President Xi Jinping moving to maintain his unrivaled authority, India teaming up with China’s regional rivals, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman making good on his promise of aggressive economic reform, and South African President Jacob Zuma’s resignation.

About Stratfor
As the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform, Stratfor brings valuable context to global events, empowering businesses, governments and individuals to more confidently navigate their way through an increasingly complex international environment. By leveraging a deep understanding of history, politics and geography in conjunction with our unique methodology, Stratfor delivers informed perspectives on today's events and develops a more accurate view of the future. Information about individual, team and enterprise membership is available at Stratfor.com.

For more information, contact:
Joshua Cook
Stratfor Director of Public Relations
[email protected]
512.744.4309