Strong trade data to support HUF

Trade data for July painted a HUF-supportive picture, Hungary's trade surplus came in at better-than-expected EUR 674mn, more than 50% wider than a year ago, improving on the year-to-date trend. 

Export growth was a decent 5.4%y/y in July, and although this was significantly slower than the 14% of June, part of that was because calendar effects had boosted June, the July growth rate was still faster than the past quarter's running average. Import growth also slowed sharply to just 2.3% in July because of the same calendar effects, leaving the surplus wider than had been anticipated. 

"Overall, the trend remains one of noticeably faster export growth this year in Hungary than a year ago, and a 35% wider trade-surplus, a HUF supportive combination. EUR-HUF is expected to gravitate lower towards 310.00 over the coming quarter", says Commerzbank.