Taiwan’s research institute now puts 2026 real GDP growth at 12.34%, citing stronger AI-linked exports and investment while the full-year estimate still depends partly on its forecast for the fourth quarter.
The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) raised its estimate from 10.38% in its July 24 outlook. The 12.34% figure is TIER’s estimate for the entire calendar year, not a final government GDP result.
TIER estimates that real exports of goods and services will grow 23.75% in 2026, private investment 13.17% and private consumption 4.82%. It says consumption is supported in part by company earnings and stock market gains.
Taiwan’s Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS) reported a 14.36% year-over-year increase in real GDP for the third quarter in an advance estimate issued Oct. 30. A separate DGBAS forecast published Aug. 14 put 2026 growth at 11.05%; it predates TIER’s November revision and reflects a different institution’s estimate. TIER’s table projects 7.35% growth in the fourth quarter as part of its full-year calculation.
For 2027, TIER forecasts GDP growth of 6.45%, with real exports of goods and services growing 12.16%, private investment 4.62% and private consumption 3.03%. TIER attributes the slower annual pace to the stronger comparison base set by this year’s expansion.
The gains are uneven, according to TIER. The institute says AI demand is supporting semiconductor, advanced packaging and server suppliers, while industries outside AI continue to face weak demand.
TIER identifies raw material and energy costs, trade policy, the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate, inflation and interest rates as uncertainties around its 2027 outlook.
