Taiwan’s real gross domestic product grew 14.36% from a year earlier in the third quarter, as AI-linked exports and investment lifted output alongside a 2.73% rise in September consumer prices.
Preliminary data released Oct. 30 by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) showed seasonally adjusted GDP rose 3.21% from the second quarter, equal to 13.48% at an annualized pace. Real exports of goods and services were up 21.12% from a year earlier, and real gross capital formation climbed 26.36%. DGBAS cited demand for emerging technologies, including AI, in its advance estimate.
Consumer prices were 2.73% higher than a year earlier and 0.44% above August, DGBAS said. The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), known as the CBC, kept its discount rate at 2% on Sept. 17. Minutes from that meeting recorded two votes against holding rates and discussions supporting possible tightening; the record does not connect the dissenting votes to particular arguments.
The CBC projected average inflation of 2.03% in 2026 and 1.83% in 2027, with core inflation at 2.16% and 1.89%, respectively. The minutes described uneven exposure to higher borrowing costs: people with home loans, smaller firms and businesses in services or traditional manufacturing could face more pressure if rates rose, as growth had become concentrated in AI-related exports and investment.
In a report to the Legislative Yuan, the CBC said overseas investors sold NT$1.2488 trillion more in shares than they bought between July and Oct. 21, equivalent to about US$38.7 billion. Including dividend remittances, reported outflows totaled US$54.3 billion. The Taiwan dollar also fell 2% against the U.S. dollar over that span.
FXStreet reported Nov. 2 that Commerzbank viewed a 12.5-basis-point rate increase in December as increasingly plausible but said the CBC might wait for clearer evidence that inflation would persist. FXStreet put USD/TWD near 32.60 and said Commerzbank saw near-term support for the U.S. dollar against Taiwan’s currency. DGBAS scheduled a preliminary third-quarter GDP release for Nov. 27, while the CBC’s provisional calendar lists Dec. 17 for its next policy meeting.
