Taiwan's HSBC manufacturing PMI declined to 49.2 in April from 51 in March. Output and new orders dropped, pointing to softer demand. Export growth deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month to -11.7% yoy in April from -4.2% yoy in Q1, suggesting weakening external sector. Fewer working days in April 2015 should also have a negative impact on the non-seasonally adjusted headline.
"Considering all the above factors, industrial production (IP) growth is expected to have moderated to 3.9% yoy in April from 6.5% yoy in March. Meanwhile, commercial sales are expected to have decelerated further by -1.4% yoy in April after -0.7% yoy in March. The weakness probably stemmed from wholesales, of which prices were down 1.1% mom in April. That said, retail sales are likely to have strengthened from 1.3% yoy in March to 1.7% yoy in April, thanks to the modest higher CPI inflation, the buoyant consumer confidence and the tight labour market", says Societe Generale.
