Taiwan’s trade growth likely to have dropped in January on earlier Lunar New Year

Taiwan’s trade growth is expected to have dropped sharply in January because of the earlier Lunar New Year. In the December quarter, the trade growth rebound stayed quite on track. The electronics-led exports rebound in likely to continue, as implied by the U.S. and China semiconductor leading indicators.

But the 2017’s Lunar New Year fell during the last week of January, whereas 2016’s was in February. This is expected to result in an unfavorable base effect. According to a Societe Generale research report, temporary falls in headline year-on-year growth rates are expected for both export and imports growth to the single digits. However, they are likely to rebound in the following months. The strength in this export rebound seems to be sustainable for one or two more quarters, added Societe Generale.