Two polls place Democratic state Rep. James Talarico slightly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton as Texas starts early voting for a U.S. Senate seat that matters to control of the chamber.
The CBS News/YouGov poll gave Talarico 51% and Paxton 49% among likely voters. CBS surveyed 1,492 registered voters from Oct. 8-16 and reported a 3.5-percentage-point margin of error for its likely-voter results. The two-point gap is too small to establish a clear leader under that measure.
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project found a similar contest in its earlier survey: 50% for Talarico and 47% for Paxton among 861 likely voters. Conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 5, the poll had a 3.34-point margin of error. Its three-point gap also fell within the reported margin. Both surveys were completed before early voting began.
Talarico was favored by CBS respondents who said higher prices had hurt them. The poll also found that the cost of living was voters’ leading concern. CBS said Texas’s Republican lean worked in Paxton’s favor.
The university poll found another difference between the parties: 53% of Democrats reported being extremely enthusiastic about voting, compared with 37% of Republicans. The university described the statewide competition as historically close. Those enthusiasm figures measure voters’ stated interest; the candidate results in both polls remain within their margins of error.
The race has implications beyond Texas. Democrats need four net Senate gains to take control of the chamber. The polls show a narrow numerical advantage for Talarico, but neither establishes which candidate will win the seat.
In-person early voting began Oct. 19 and continues through Oct. 30, according to the Texas secretary of state’s election calendar. Election Day is Nov. 3.
