The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lifted its growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 as exports and investment tied to technology and artificial intelligence (AI) strengthened, while saying the benefits remain concentrated.
The Bank expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 2.4% this year, up from its June forecast of 2.3%, and 2.1% in 2027, compared with 1.8% previously. The higher outlook adds to earlier attention on Thailand’s prospects, including an S&P assessment of the country’s growth outlook.
The value of merchandise exports is projected to rise year over year by 22% in 2026 and 15% in 2027, compared with June estimates of 14% and 4.6%. Private investment is forecast to grow 13.0% this year and 7.6% next year, up from 6.0% and 3.6% in the earlier projections.
At its Oct. 28 meeting, the MPC unanimously kept the policy rate at 1.00%; one member was unable to attend. The committee said, “Overall growth remains below potential.”
The committee described the gains as clustered among businesses and workers in manufacturing and services connected to the technology and AI cycle. It said household debt, fragile labor conditions and limited purchasing power are restraining consumer spending, particularly among low-income households. Smaller businesses also face pressure from competition and the difficulty of adapting, the MPC said.
The Bank lowered its foreign tourist arrival estimates to 32 million in 2026 and 34.5 million in 2027, each 1 million below its June projection. It cited higher oil prices as one factor weighing on arrivals.
The projections use historical GDP figures that predate the latest revision to the Manufacturing Production Index (MPI), the Bank said. The revision expands factory coverage for existing categories, including integrated circuits and other electronic components. It also adds notebooks and laptops, optical transceivers, and uninterruptible power supplies for data-processing equipment.
The October meeting minutes are scheduled for Nov. 11. The MPC’s next meeting is set for Dec. 23.
