Thailand’s Social Security Fund pension segment could begin paying more in benefits than it receives in contributions around 2037, a projection by the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) that highlights pressure on the country’s retirement system.
The forecast covers the pension segment alone, not the entire fund. TDRI expects the insured workforce to shrink over the next decade as new pensioners increase. It links the strain to fewer formal workers paying in, longer periods of benefit collection, weak investment returns and contribution rules that adjust gradually.
The model assumes a 6% contribution rate, pension payments starting at age 55, annual inflation of 1.5% and an annual investment return of 4%. TDRI varied annual returns from 2% to 6%, producing a reserve-depletion range of 2052 to 2058. That range depends on investment performance rather than setting a fixed depletion date.
The pension segment still had a surplus at the end of 2025. TDRI's July analysis put its assets above 2 trillion baht and reported an annual surplus of about 100 billion baht.
TDRI proposes gradually increasing the combined contribution rate for employers and employees from 6% to 12%, while targeting average returns of 5% to 6% rather than 2% to 3%. It also recommends raising the standard pension start age from 55 to 60, with exceptions for people unable to continue working. Higher contributions would increase payments by employers and workers, while the age change would delay benefits for those affected. The proposals have not been enacted.
Thailand's Cabinet separately approved a draft amendment to the 1990 Social Security Act on Nov. 3. It would raise the maximum age for covered employees from 60 to 65, allow some pension recipients to return to insured status and let people with at least 60 months of contributions access part of their old-age funds before age 55 after a severe disaster. The draft would also allow part of the funds to serve as loan collateral through financial institutions with an agreement with the Social Security Office. The amount would be capped at 30% of old-age contributions and twice the maximum wage base used for contributions.
The Cabinet resolution says the draft must go through parliamentary consideration and gives no estimate of its effect on the pension segment's long-term finances.
