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With very little chance that George R.R. Martin will announce the release date for “The Winds of Winter” anytime soon, fans have resorted to many interesting ways to speculate. One of the predictions suggests the sixth “A Song of Ice and Fire” book might not be released until May 2019.
Many fans were hoping that “The Winds of Winter” would come out this year. But that hope was crushed as early as last April when Martin confirmed the book will not make it in 2018.
As mentioned, fans have resorted to various ways in determining when they can start reading “The Winds of Winter.” Instead of merely speculating, Redditor u/King_of_Pyjamas used the statistical method called regression analysis. It may sound a bit of a stretch but, who knows, maybe science can answer this one great mystery in the Westeros fandom.
The Reddit user found out that there was a “standard error of 165 days” (about five and a half months) between the actual release date and what the statistical method had predicted for the first “A Song of Ice and Fire” books. So, what does it say about the launch of “The Winds of Winter” and “A Dream of Spring?”
The predicted release date for “The Winds of Winter” is in November 2018, but everyone knows that’s not going to happen. So, fans can consider the said “standard error” of at least five months, which extends the waiting period to May 2019.
Meanwhile, if math and science would correctly predict the release date of “The Winds of Winter,” fans could be looking at about a decade of waiting for “A Dream of Spring.” The model estimated the final book to launch in late September 2027, which means the actual wait can reach March 2028.
This is a very scientific estimation. But it is important to note that the release of “The Winds of Winter” and “A Dream of Spring” are both affected by Martin’s other commitments and the pace of his writing and editing.
