The U.S. Department of the Treasury expects $618 billion in privately held net marketable borrowing for October through December, lowering its estimate after the government entered the quarter with more cash than planned.
The department's Nov. 2 estimate is $10 billion below its August projection of $628 billion and assumes $850 billion in cash at year-end. Treasury's table shows the opening cash balance was $34 billion above the level assumed in August. The opening-cash difference lowered financing needs, with the weaker net-cash-flow outlook offsetting part of that reduction. Under August’s opening-cash assumption, the current estimate would be $24 billion above the August forecast.
For January through March 2027, Treasury projects $800 billion in borrowing, assuming a $1 trillion cash balance at the end of March. Readers can compare the figure with EconoTimes' earlier first-quarter 2027 borrowing outlook.
The measure tracks net marketable debt held by private investors, rather than the gross value of securities sold at auction. It excludes Federal Reserve rollover allotments at auctions but includes financing tied to securities the central bank allows to mature without reinvesting.
Treasury also reported $742 billion in borrowing from July through September and $984 billion in cash at quarter-end. Its August estimate had projected $739 billion in borrowing and a $950 billion closing cash balance. The department described actual borrowing as $4 billion above its estimate, primarily because the closing cash balance was higher than assumed; higher net cash flows partly offset that effect. Treasury said borrowing would have been $30 billion below the August forecast without the larger closing balance.
