The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Tropical Storm Vance to become post-tropical by Thursday, while rainfall remains a flooding and mudslide threat in parts of western Mexico.
At 11 p.m. ET Tuesday, Oct. 27 (0300 UTC Oct. 28), Vance was near 17.3°N, 108.4°W, moving northwest at seven knots. The NHC reported sustained winds of 35 knots, gusts to 45 knots and minimum central pressure of 1,003 millibars.
The NHC forecast the storm to turn north toward the Gulf of California by Thursday. It projected Vance would become post-tropical by 8 a.m. ET Thursday (1200 UTC), become a post-tropical remnant low by 8 a.m. Friday, Oct. 30 (1200 UTC), then dissipate by 8 p.m. that day (0000 UTC Oct. 31).
Dry air was moving into Vance’s core as thunderstorms remained displaced from the center. Although the storm was over waters of 29C to 30C, the NHC said wind shear of about 40 knots could prevent thunderstorms from organizing near the center. Forecasters described the intensity outlook as having “plenty of uncertainties due to a variety of variables.”
Rain could bring flooding and mudslides to central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango and northwestern Nayarit, with steep terrain especially vulnerable. The NHC urged coastal interests along Mexico’s southwestern and west-central coasts and the southern Baja California Peninsula to monitor the storm. EconoTimes previously covered the NHC’s forecast shift and Mexico rain risks.
