Turkish economy likely to expand 6.8 pct in 2017 and slow to 3.5 pct in 2018 – Danske Bank

In the third quarter, Turkish economic growth has surprised positively, with the economy growing 11.1 percent year-on-year. This was the strongest growth since 2011. The construction and industrial sectors were the best performers on a year-on-year basis. Seasonally adjusted sequential data show that quarterly growth came from private consumption and fixed investments. Exports also saw double-digit growth in the third quarter of this year.

Given the recent surprise in economic indicators’ growth, the Russian economy is likely to grow 6.8 percent year-on-year in 2017, noted Danske Bank in a research report.

“We expect 2018 GDP to grow to 3.5 percent y/y, as a high base effect will keep the expansion figures lower and the central bank is likely to remain more hawkish than we expected previously. We expect 2019 GDP growth to slow down to 3.0 percent y/y”, added Danske Bank.

The current account balance continues to be in a negative territory, recording an USD 3.8 billion deficit in October. Current account deficit is expected to remain in negative territory throughout 2017-2019 at around -5 percent of GDP. The current increase in the oil price would broaden the deficit and a considerable fiscal growth is a major threat to CA widening, stated Danske Bank.

FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/invest