A U.S. election, Friday’s payroll report and a cluster of central-bank decisions put politics, labor data and borrowing costs on the global market calendar for Nov. 2-6.
Voters go to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3, to decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate. Reuters reported Oct. 30 that forecasts favored a Democratic House majority, while the Senate outcome remained less predictable. Reuters also said investors were watching for possible effects on AI regulation and fiscal spending.
Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter conference call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET Monday, Nov. 2. AMD plans to report fiscal third-quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a call at 5 p.m. ET. Qualcomm’s fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results are due after Wednesday’s close, followed by a call at 4:45 p.m. ET.
Recent results from Alphabet and Amazon intensified questions about how companies will fund AI projects and whether the spending will deliver adequate returns, Reuters reported. Chris Galipeau, head market strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, told Reuters, “The earnings bar is very high.” Reuters also reported that Intel shares fell nearly 29% on Oct. 30. Investors are weighing AI investment returns as the companies report results.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to announce its decision at 10:30 p.m. ET Monday, Nov. 2; its cash rate is 4.60%. Newsquawk’s Oct. 30 preview reported a 79% market-implied probability of a quarter-point increase to 4.85%. Sveriges Riksbank is scheduled to announce its decision at 3:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, Nov. 4, with its policy rate at 1.75%. Newsquawk expected a 25-basis-point increase to 2.00%.
The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its decision at 7 a.m. ET Thursday, Nov. 5. Bank Rate is 3.75%, and a Reuters poll found economists expected a quarter-point increase to 4.00%. Norges Bank also decides Thursday; its policy rate is 4.50%, and Newsquawk’s preview expected it to hold. Eurostat’s October euro-area flash inflation estimate is due Wednesday. Its latest estimate showed annual inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August.
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court said President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election with 51.79% of valid votes in the Oct. 25 runoff. Banco Central do Brasil has a Copom policy meeting scheduled for Nov. 3-4. Reuters reported that Brazil’s real fell 1.3% against the U.S. dollar on Oct. 30 and was heading for its steepest weekly decline since November 2008.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release its October Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, Nov. 6. Its September report recorded a 29,000 increase in payrolls and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct. 28, though two Federal Open Market Committee members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed’s next scheduled meeting is Dec. 8-9.
