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UK wage growth excluding bonuses remained at 3.5% in the second quarter of 2026, while unemployment increased, pointing to further signs of weakness in the country’s labor market, according to the latest data covering June and July.
The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.9% in the three months to June, up from 4.8% in the previous three-month period. The monthly unemployment rate increased more sharply, reaching 5.4% from 4.6%.
PAYE employment also declined by 13,000 in July, following an equal fall in June. The June figure was revised from an earlier estimate of a 4,000 decline. Overall employment was 0.3% lower than a year earlier.
The UK jobs market continued to weaken as vacancies fell to 707,000 in the three months to July from 711,000 in the previous period. The decline adds to evidence of cooling demand for workers.
Average UK earnings, including bonuses, slowed to 4.1% in June from a revised 4.4% in May. Regular pay growth excluding bonuses, however, increased slightly from 3.4% to 3.5%.
The increase in regular wage growth was driven entirely by the public sector, where pay growth accelerated from 5.5% to 6.1%. Private-sector regular pay growth continued to ease, falling from 2.9% to 2.8%.
Capital Economics said the weakening labor market is unlikely to generate significant second-round inflation pressures. The research firm therefore expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.
The latest UK labor market figures could reinforce expectations that the Bank of England will maintain its current interest-rate stance as wage pressures in the private sector continue to moderate and unemployment rises.
