UK claimant count likely to have risen in May on uncertainty

According to business surveys, activity in the UK will suffer from the uncertainty shock of the approaching EU referendum. The pace of growth in employment has slowed to just 0.1 percent 3m/3m in March from 0.8 percent 3m/3m in November 2015.

The claimant count data is likely to show a slowdown with a slight rise of 5,000. This will be sufficient to raise the claimant count rate to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent in May, said Societe Generale in a research report.

Meanwhile, the LFS data is expected to indicate that the UK jobless rate continues to be at 5.1 percent in April, whereas regular earnings growth is likely to have risen to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent 3m/3m. This will show the rise in National Minimum Wage to GBP 7.20 per hour, which was effective from April 1. Recently, bonus pay has been subdued. Hence, the total earnings growth is likely to decline to 1.8 percent from two percent, noted Societe Generale.