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UK fiscal policy and the EU are key differentiators, though BoE policy would likely adjust

The parties have outlined a range of manifesto policies, but the following issues are key in terms of the markets' response, post-election:

  • How quickly the fiscal deficit is cut - manifestos suggest faster under the Conservatives, slower under Labour (but the effect could be counter-balanced by later/earlier Bank of England, 'BoE', rate hikes).

  • Whether an EU referendum occurs, adding prolonged business uncertainty - 'yes' under Conservatives (even with LibDems), 'no' under Labour.

  • Whether the government is broadly pro-business - the perception is 'yes' under Conservatives, less so under Labour, albeit the LibDems could be a moderating force.

  • Whether there will be a second election - this risk is especially pertinent if the Conservatives win the most seats but cannot form a government.

 

  • Market Data
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