Notes from Standard Chartered Research: The second release of the UK's Q4 GDP (27 February) will likely match the first, at 0.5% q/q (2.7% y/y). The breakdown by expenditure will be available this time. We expect househo…
The second release of the UK's Q4 GDP (27 February) will likely match the first, at 0.5% q/q (2.7% y/y). The breakdown by expenditure will be available this time.
We expect household consumption to have been the main growth driver, as retail sales (ex-car fuel) were up 2.1% q/q in Q4, the highest quarterly increase in over 10 years.
Household consumption has risen in each quarter since Q4-2011.
Fixed investment and government consumption likely contributed positively but only mildly to growth.
Net trade also likely made a small positive contribution, as the trade deficit shrank in Q4 versus Q3.
In terms of the sector breakdown, the recovery remains very much driven by services.
Industrial production has slowed down recently, especially the energy sector. Manufacturing is growing steadily.
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