U.K. retail sales rise remarkably in November, consumer spending growth to form in Q4

Retail sales in the U.K. recorded a remarkable outturn in the month of November. The headline retail sales rose 1.1 percent sequentially. Stripping fuel, sales volumes rose slightly higher at 1.2 percent sequentially. In the meantime, the annual pace of sales growth recovered to positive territory with the help of November’s solid outturn and upward revisions to data covering the July to October period.

Surveys of retail activity from BRC and CBI had indicated toward some strengthening in the annual pace of sales growth, but reports from retailers were mixed and had implemented a more subdued effect from Black Friday sales.

The figures released today leave fourth quarter on a track to be another decent quarter of activity for retail. While it is possible that certain seasonal spending was brought forward to take advantage of Black Friday deals, today’s report does not include spending on Cyber Monday, noted Lloyds Bank in a research report. These data will be included in the December figures. Still, even if sales in December were to completely reverse November’s rise, it will still leave sales up 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, widely consistent with the third quarter’s outturn, stated Lloyds Bank.

“However, as retail sales cover only around a third of consumer spending, the mapping to overall consumer expenditure is still only approximate. Nevertheless, we still expect consumer spending growth to be firm in Q4, albeit a little softer relative to the 0.6 percent q/q pace recorded in Q3”, added Lloyds Bank.

At 13:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of British Pound was neutral at -7.44016, while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was bearish at -96.1197. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/invest