UK retail sales to rise by 0.4%

Both the CBI and BRC retail surveys have indicated a strong UK retail performance in September. This is credible for two main reasons. First, the fundamentals remain strong; real income growth is high and consumer confidence is firm. Second, the surveys make comparisons with a year earlier. 

This year, the bulk of the August bank holiday weekend is covered in the September rather than the August sampling period. Last year, the bulk of the bank holiday was captured in the August survey. 

"We expect an increase of 0.4% mom I sales ex auto fuels which should lift the yoy rate from 3.5% to 4.7% yoy", notes Societe Generale.