UK's 2015 GDP likely to be 2.4%

UK government's planned significant fiscal consolidation is likely to trigger more cautious behaviour by households, while firms are set to face a period of heightened uncertainty in the run-up to the EU referendum, thus likely resulting in reduced investment. 

Historically, manufacturing has been muted in its contribution to economic growth, with the bulk coming from services (Figures 2 and 3). Hence, it will be imperative to monitor closely services confidence so as to better gauge whether it remains resilient and thus overall activity with it.

"As such, 2015 GDP growth is forecasted at 2.4%, below 2014 (2.9%), while 2016 is projected to continue to show ongoing slight moderation to 2.2%", says Barclays.

Also, the ONS National Accounts release can be materially revised even after the release of the final estimate. Hence, it would not recommended to draw excessively strong conclusions from this release. The second estimate of Q3 2015 GDP growth will be on 27 November 2015.