A decade after the Paris Agreement took effect, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) says the chance of avoiding a 1.5°C overshoot has passed, as scientists expect long-term warming to cross that level by decade’s end.
Al Jazeera reported that 2024 marked the first full calendar year when global temperatures topped 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. It said the 2023–25 average also exceeded that threshold, making the period the hottest three-year stretch on record. The long-term warming average is about 1.4°C, the outlet reported.
Policy projections have improved since the agreement was adopted in 2015. Al Jazeera reported that policies in place that year pointed to about 3.6°C of warming by 2100; Climate Action Tracker’s current-policy estimate is now about 2.6°C. The outlet said progress on projections has stalled since 2021.
The agreement entered into force Nov. 4, 2016, and has 194 parties — 193 countries and the European Union, according to Al Jazeera. Governments set their own emissions and adaptation goals, then submit updated plans every five years. A Global Stocktake reviews collective progress on that cycle. The agreement uses transparency and international pressure to encourage action but does not compel governments to meet their targets, Al Jazeera reported.
Emissions remain a major gap. Al Jazeera’s review found that China, the United States and India produce more than half of annual global emissions, and that the 2024 total was 9% above 2016. It reported rising emissions in China, India and Indonesia as coal use grew with power demand. Emissions declined in the United States, Germany and Japan, largely as renewables and gas replaced coal, but increases elsewhere outweighed those cuts. The outlet said burning coal, oil and natural gas is the main source of carbon dioxide, while deforestation reduces the number of trees that absorb it.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said, “Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5C increases climate impacts and risks …” She cited floods, heat waves and wildfires as examples. Governments’ next recurring milestones are updated national plans and a Global Stocktake, which take place on a five-year cycle, Al Jazeera reported.