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The U.S. dollar edged lower on Thursday after softer-than-expected producer inflation data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming months.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% to 99.94, putting it on course to end a three-session winning streak. The move followed July’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which showed further signs that inflationary pressures are cooling.
Headline PPI was unchanged month over month in July and increased 4.7% from a year earlier, down from June’s 5.5% annual gain. Both figures came in below market expectations. Core PPI, which excludes volatile components, rose 0.2% monthly and 4.2% annually, compared with June increases of 0.4% and 4.7%, respectively.
The figures reinforced the previous day's consumer inflation data, with both CPI and PPI showing moderation on an annual basis. While the Federal Reserve primarily monitors the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, CPI and PPI components contribute to the PCE calculation.
Following the inflation report, traders lowered their expectations for a September Fed rate hike. CME FedWatch data indicated that the probability of an increase fell to around 34%, while the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged climbed to nearly 66%.
U.S. Treasury yields also declined as investors moved into bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6.1 basis points to 4.631%, while the two-year yield fell 5.4 basis points to 4.145%. Technology stocks benefited from the shift, with the S&P 500 technology sector gaining about 1.1%.
Meanwhile, U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 209,000 for the week ending August 8, exceeding economists' forecast of 202,000.
In currency markets, USD/JPY rose slightly to around 159.52 as the Japanese yen continued surrendering gains from the recent U.S.-Japan intervention. The British pound slipped 0.1% to $1.3485 despite UK GDP expanding 0.4% in June. Economists expect the British economy to slow later in 2026 as higher energy costs, fuel prices and fiscal uncertainty weigh on household and business spending.
