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USD has declined against all major currencies and EM currencies previous week. Downside may be limited and it is expected to take support in the near term as markets already priced in a somewhat gloomy outlook for the US economy.
- USD is expected to outperform EM currencies on monetary policy divergence between US Fed and EM central bank.
- The major events to be watched this are FOMC Minutes, U.S Industrial production on Wednesday and CPI data on Friday.
- Fed Chairman testified before Congress on previous Wednesday that U.S economy has been hurt by strong dollar, sinking stocks and weaker Yuan is a big concern for global trade. Jannet Yellen also stated that "I do not expect that the FOMC is going to be soon in the situation where it is necessary to cut rates,"
- The IP is expected to increase 0.4% during January, in line with market expectations. The core CPI will likely print 2.0% y/y, marginally below market expectations of 2.1%. Headline inflation will continue being driven by USD strength and low commodity prices staying around 1.2% y/y (consensus: 1.3%).
Technical Analysis:
USD/RUB
- USD/RUB declined till 76.90 today at the time of writing on stronger Crude oil prices. It is currently trading around 77.62.
- The pair is expected to take support near 74.35 (55 day EMA) and to jump from that level. Any break below 74.35 will drag the pair till 70.
- On the higher resistance is around 81 and break above will take the pair till 85.95.
USD/ZAR :
- USD/ZAR has declined till 15.64 on Thursday (Feb 11th 2016) is facing strong support at 15.60 (55 day EMA) and any further weakness can be seen only below 15.60.
- On the higher side minor resistance is around 16.50 and break above targets 17/17.75
USD/TRY:
- USD/TRY breaks major support 2.98 and declined till 2.8850. It has slightly recovered till 2.960 but it is trading well below 3 level.
- The pair's major support is around 2.8500 and break below targets 2.080/2.075.
- On the higher side any break above 3 will take the pair till 30.60
