Underlying momentum in U.S. economy stronger than GDP growth suggests and Standard Chartered expects a solid H2-15. After a dismal start to the year, Standard Chartered forecasts GDP growth will accelerate to 3.0% on average in H2. Consumer spending and housing to be main drivers.
Credit data is picking up, pointing to stronger growth near-term. Booming credit supports car sales; mortgage origination may accelerate, supporting housing in H2-2015. Drop in oil rigs is decelerating (and may stabilise soon). Impact of oil-price drop on energy-related investment may dissipate.
Although not our central scenario, recession risks may rise by 2016-17; buffers against external shocks may be thin, notes Standard Chartered. Jobless claims data is consistent with a business cycle close to peak. Another warning signal is corporate profits which are starting to slow.
