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Today first estimate of US second quarter GDP will be released at 12:30 GMT.
Market is expecting improved second quarter for US economy.
Past trends -
- after rising 5% and 2.2% in previous two quarters, US GDP shrank by -0.2% in the first quarter of 2015. Historically speaking US economy usually falters in first quarter.
Expectation today -
- Market is expecting a number around +2.6% expansion at annualized rate, as surveyed by Bloomberg. GDP estimate has higher probability to surprise to upside than upside today.
Market impact -
- Dollar and yields will strengthen sharply, should the data surprise on the upside. Stronger than expected number would be very bullish since market is expecting any massive improvement.
- Weaker data might turn out to be very bearish, especially for dollar as market is expecting significant improvement in the second quarter after shrinkage in the first.
FXCM Dollar index is currently trading at 12026, up 0.05% today so far.
