US average hourly earnings to increase in July

The remaining portions of the BLS employment situation report are expected to be positive as well. Reflecting well-worn calendar quirks associated with the timing of the establishment survey, average hourly earnings likely climbed by 0.2% in July, after no change in the preceding month. 

The echo of a smaller uptick during the corresponding period of 2014 would push the year-to-year growth of the closely followed nominal compensation measure two ticks higher to 2.2%, the upper end of the prevailing range over the latest 12 months. 

"Owing to an extended five-week interval between survey periods, the mean work span of all private employees probably expanded by six minutes to 34.6 hours, the longest interval since February", says Societe Generale. 

Although changes in the average workweek usually receive little attention from market participants, the extension projected above would be the functional equivalent of adding almost 350K workers from a labor-input perspective. 

"Combined with an anticipated 235K increase in private payrolls, the workweek forecast would place total hours worked 0.5% above their prior-month level and a healthy 2.8% annualized above the April-June average", added Societe Generale.