U.S. consumer confidence index likely to have remained stable in October

The U.S. consumer confidence index is expected to have remained stable in October. The sentiment in the prior month rose for the first time in four month. It had increased to 91.2 from 89.8. The rise was because of an increase in the expectations measure, even as the current conditions gauge dropped to 104.2 last month. The drop in the current conditions was the third straight drop. The sentiment index of 104.2 in September continues to be one of the best since before the recession started.

On the contrary to the current conditions measure, the expectations gauge increased for the second consecutive month, rising to 82.7, a four-month high. Even if the two sub-indices have moved in separate directions lately, they have successfully cancelled each other out, noted Societe Generale in a research report.

Admittedly, the headline confidence index has moved narrowly in the past three months. The present six-month average of 91.4 is little altered from October 2015’s reading of 91.5, in spite of the monthly swings.

“We expect that the preliminary October Michigan sentiment index showed a slight increase to 92.0”, added Societe Generale.