US consumer prices likely climbed in October

The late-summer slide in consumer prices is expected to have ended in October. Higher retail energy quotes, along with an anticipated pickup in core goods and services costs, probably propelled the headline CPI 0.2% higher last month, completely reversing the decline posted over the August-September span. While gasoline pump prices nationwide fell by 3.0% to an eight-month low of $2.387 per gallon during the reference period, the October pullback failed to meet government statisticians' expectations for a 4.3% decline. A 1.1% increase is expected in motor fuel costs, following an 8.9% dive in September. 

After incorporating projected declines in heating oil (-1.7%), electricity (-0.2%) and residential natural gas (-0.2%) costs, the CPI energy gauge likely climbed by 0.4% in October, after a 6.6% drop over the prior two months. Net of expected upticks in food (0.1%) and energy components, the core CPI probably continued apace, rising by 0.2% (0.24% unrounded) for a second straight month. Higher airline fares, combined with rebounds in clothing, drug and new vehicle costs, are expected to contribute to the rise in the core CPI in October. 

"Our projections, if accurate, would place the CPI 0.2% above the figure recorded in October 2014. The year-to-year growth of the core subindex, meanwhile, is expected to remain at 1.9%", notes Societe Generale.