Quotes from Societe Generale:
- The BLS report on the employment situation in Feb will provide a final update on hiring activity ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. Our analysis suggests that last month's readings on hiring and joblessness will once again support the upgraded assessment of labor-market conditions expressed by monetary policymakers following their January gathering. We expect government statisticians to report that nonfarm payrolls expanded by a healthy 280,000 in Feb, following the breakneck 336,000 pace set over the prior three months.
- Previously discussed calendar quirks associated with the early termination date of the establishment survey, however, likely capped average hourly earnings growth at a consensus-matching 0.2% last month, after the encouraging 0.5% pop posted in January. Meanwhile, the mean work span of all private workers probably remained glued at 34.6 hours for a fifth consecutive month.
- While generally more positive than median Street projections, figures in line with our forecasts would not alter our current monetary policy calls. Barring any dramatic surprises, we expect the FOMC to remove the reference to patience from the communiqué following the upcoming meeting and to begin the process of policy normalization in June.
