US retail sales preview

US retail sales statistics for June will be released at 13:30 GMT, today.

Why retail sales and US consumers are important?

• Domestic consumption of goods contribute about 25% of GDP or around $ 4 trillion as of 2014. Among this Durable goods such as vehicles, furniture account for only $1.3 trillion. Buying of non-durables such as food, clothing account for $2.7 trillion.
   
• Moreover services, which is not covered by retail sales account for 45% of the GDP and mainly consumed at home.

Past trends

• Retail sales as well as personal consumption expenditure have been growing in last few years, however pace of growth is yet to turn robust. Sales should pick up heading into holiday season.

• Growth has been minimal this year, except for 1.2% in May and 0.6% in July. Growth has been negative in January (-0.8%), February (-0.5%) and June (-0.3%)

Expectations today -

• Retail sales are expected to grow at 0.3% and excluding vehicles about 0.3% for November.

Impact

• Though bad data is unlikely to change market view that FED would hike next week, it might dent US Dollar positive sentiment temporarily.
• Dollar index is currently trading at 97.9, just about flat for the day.