USDCHF: Buy Signal on Retail Sales Strength?

USDCHF trades higher on board-based US dollar buying.It  hits an intraday  high of 0.80639 and is currently trading around 0.80548. Intraday bias appears to be bullish as long as support 0.7990.

US retail sales jumped 0. 6% month-over-month to $720. 1 billion in June 2025, therefore exceeding market expectations and reversing losses from the two preceding months. With a 3. 9% year-over-year rise, this amazing rebound points to strong consumer expenditure—a 0. 5% increase even without automotive sales and in the GDP-calculating control group. Although different industries saw growth—mostly in those including motor vehicles, building supplies, and retail stores—furniture and electronics saw a little dip, and gasoline sales stayed flat. Though part of the rise might be ascribed to higher prices brought on by levies, this excellent performance points to a robust US economy and might affect Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Upside

The pair is trading above the   55-EMA, below the 200 EMA, and the 365 EMA on the chart indicates a mixed trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.8060, any break above targets 0.8090/0.8140/0.8180/0.8250/0.8300.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.7990; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7950/0.7920/0.7900/0.7860/0.7800.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bullish

Directional Movement Index -  Neutral

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to buy above 0.8000 with a stop-loss at 0.7950 for a TP of 0.8090.