USDCHF pared most of its gains on board-based U dollar selling, and gained slightly despite a weak US dollar. It hits an intraday low of 0.80222 and is currently trading around 0.08340.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that investor expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate decrease at the September 17, 2025, FOMC meeting have significantly grown, now implying a 94–98% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction. Recent weak labor market figures and a lower July inflation report have contributed to this rise in expectations, which has caused a fall in Treasury yields and future markets mostly pricing in a lowering of the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%. Although certain Fed officials have indicated that several reductions should the economy continue to be weak, the choice is data-dependent; the September meeting will include an evaluation of additional inflation and employment data.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside
The pair is trading below the 55-EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. The immediate resistance is at 0.8065; any break above targets 0.8090/0.8135/0.8170/0.8215/0.8250.
Support Levels and Potential Declines
On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8020; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7980/0.7920/0.7860/0.7800.
Indicators (4-hour chart)
CCI (50) - Bearish
Directional Movement Index - Bearish
Trading Strategy Recommendation
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8078-80 with a stop-loss at 0.81350 for a TP of 0.7860.
