USDCHF pared most of its gains after weak US durable goods orders. It hits an intraday low of 0.80336 and is currently trading around 0.80342.
The US durable goods orders report for July 2025, released on August 26, 2025, indicated a 2.8% decline to $302.8 billion, less severe than the forecasted 4.0% drop, marking the third decline in four months but signaling a slowing demand contraction. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.1%, surpassing expectations of a 0.2% increase, driven by gains in electrical equipment, machinery, and metals, while transportation equipment orders fell 9.7% due to weak commercial aircraft bookings. Durable goods shipments increased 1.4%, marking eight consecutive months of gains, with transportation shipments up 2.3%. Core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and defense) rose 1.1%, and shipments gained 0.7%, reflecting robust business investment and a strong third-quarter start. Despite volatility in aircraft orders, the resilience in non-transportation sectors and steady shipment growth provide a modestly positive outlook for the US economy and USD, indicating a stabilizing manufacturing sector.
Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside
The pair is trading above the 55-EMA, below 2the 00 EMA and 365 EMA on the 1-hour chart, indicating a mixed trend. The immediate resistance is at 0.8065; any break above targets 0.8100/ 0.8135/0.8170/0.8215/0.8250.
Support Levels and Potential Declines
On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8020; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7980/0.7920/0.7860/0.7800.
Indicators (1-hour chart)
CCI (50) - Neutral
Directional Movement Index - Bearish
Trading Strategy Recommendation
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8048-50 with a stop-loss at 0.8100 for a TP of 0.7860.
