The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects the economy to contract in 2026 as a port blockade and Russian attacks constrain production and transport, marking its first projected annual decline since 2022.
The NBU replaced its earlier forecast of 1.8% growth with a 0.4% contraction in real gross domestic product (GDP). If realized, that would follow a 28.8% decline in 2022, growth of 5.5% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024, according to NBU data. The State Statistics Service of Ukraine estimated preliminary growth of 1.8% in 2025.
The central bank estimated that GDP fell 0.5% year over year in the third quarter. It attributed pressure to the seaport blockade and Russian attacks on production and logistics. The NBU said metalmaking and ore extraction recorded the largest losses, while other industries, trade and agriculture also weakened.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said the Danube corridor and EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes cannot move freight at the scale of Black Sea ports. It projected grain and oilseed exports would fall 50% to 60% in the second half of 2026, adding pressure on agricultural exporters.
The NBU estimated intensified shelling would subtract 1.9 percentage points from its 2026 GDP forecast and add about 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation that year. It raised its year-end inflation outlook to 12.5% from 10%. September headline inflation was 10% year over year, while core inflation was 8.8%.
The bank increased its key policy rate by 0.5 percentage points, from 16% to 16.5%, effective Oct. 30. It projects 0.4% GDP growth in 2027 if logistics improve around midyear, followed by 2.2% in 2028 as security risks ease. The World Bank’s 1.2% growth projection, published Oct. 6, and the EBRD’s 1.5% projection, published Sept. 24, both came before the NBU’s revision. The NBU cited defense-industry investment, domestic weapons production funded through the Ukraine Support Loan and critical infrastructure restoration as supports for future activity.
