Ukraine’s central bank now expects the economy to shrink in 2026 as Russian attacks and seaport disruption weigh on output, raising the stakes for the foreign financing assumed in Kyiv’s 2027 outlook.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) changed its real gross domestic product (GDP) projection from 1.8% growth to a 0.4% contraction. It estimated that intensified attacks reduced the outlook by 1.9 percentage points, alongside pressure from disrupted logistics and the seaport blockade. The NBU also estimated that real GDP declined 0.5% year over year in the third quarter.
Metallurgical and ore-mining companies recorded the largest losses, the NBU said, while other industries, trade and agriculture also weakened. For 2027, the bank projects 0.4% growth if logistics improve by midyear. That outlook assumes about $52 billion in direct budget support and $37 billion for the defense component of the Ukraine Support Loan; the figures are financing assumptions.
The European Commission has proposed assigning the remaining €45 billion of the EU’s €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan to 2027. Its plan includes up to €13.3 billion for budget support and €31.7 billion for Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity. The Council of the EU must adopt the proposal before funds can be disbursed, with payments expected to start in early 2027. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the plan would help Ukrainian authorities plan financing and keep public services operating.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told European Council participants on Oct. 16 that the war would cost €155 billion in 2027 and requested at least €70 billion more for defense, weapons and resilience.
The Kyiv Independent, citing Bloomberg Economics analysts Ekaterina Vlasova and Alex Kokcharov, reported that Western aid is becoming a more important factor in Ukraine’s capacity to continue the war in 2027. The outlet said the analysts also identified elections in France, Italy and Poland as potential risks to future assistance.
The NBU will publish its full October forecast in its Inflation Report Thursday, Nov. 5. The Commission’s proposed allocation remains subject to adoption by the Council of the EU.
