Markets are expected to see the upcoming China's Q4 GDP growth estimates with some doubt due to the uncertainty of the country's trade data. China's economic growth forecast is expected to remain unchanged at 6.9%. The sceptic views regarding the country's GDP growth estimate is because the surprising rebound of China's export growth might have been a result of fake invoices. The sudden rise in export figures might also be due to valuation impacts arising from depreciation of yuan that will not account for in the GDP forecasts, which excludes price effects.
Moreover, trade release of other Asian countries will be checked carefully in order to verify the authenticity of China's recent rebound in exports. The value of imports from China reported by Taiwan and South Korea have totally mismatched from what China has reported as the growth in the exports value from South Korea and Taiwan. China's trade data will be further evaluated this week and in the subsequent weeks by comparing trade figures from Thailand, India, Japan, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Philippines, North America and Europe. Meanwhile, China will release the data for retail sales, industrial production and property prices this week.
