Vietnam Q1 GDP and March data likely to show steady growth

Vietnam will release Q1-2015 GDP data and key March data from 25-31 March, and March inflation data on 24 March.

Standard Chartered notes its views on Vietnam GDP data as follows....

• We expect steady GDP growth of 5.4% y/y, up from 4.8% in Q1-2014. We are positive on the export and FDI outlook given the country's rising profile as a regional manufacturing hub. 
  
  
• We expect inflation of 0% y/y in March, versus 0.34% in February, owing to lower global fuel prices. Food prices, the largest component of the CPI basket, have also been muted in Q1. 
  
  
• The benign inflation outlook should provide room for policy rate cuts in 2015. We forecast that thecentral bank will cut the policy rate 50bps in H1-2015. 
  
  
• We expect industrial production, export and import growth to have picked up y/y versus February. 
  
  
• Retail sales growth also likely rose in March, owing to more working days in the month, despite Tet (Lunar New Year) demand in February.