Vietnam Q1 GDP and March data likely to show steady growth
Vietnam will release Q1-2015 GDP data and key March data from 25-31 March, and March inflation data on 24 March.Standard Chartered notes its views on Vietnam GDP data as follows.... We expect steady GDP growth of 5.4% y/…
Vietnam will release Q1-2015 GDP data and key March data from 25-31 March, and March inflation data on 24 March.
Standard Chartered notes its views on Vietnam GDP data as follows....
We expect steady GDP growth of 5.4% y/y, up from 4.8% in Q1-2014. We are positive on the export and FDI outlook given the country's rising profile as a regional manufacturing hub.
We expect inflation of 0% y/y in March, versus 0.34% in February, owing to lower global fuel prices. Food prices, the largest component of the CPI basket, have also been muted in Q1.
The benign inflation outlook should provide room for policy rate cuts in 2015. We forecast that thecentral bank will cut the policy rate 50bps in H1-2015.
We expect industrial production, export and import growth to have picked up y/y versus February.
Retail sales growth also likely rose in March, owing to more working days in the month, despite Tet (Lunar New Year) demand in February.
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