A forecast for heavier rain across much of the Arab region late this year comes as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported below-normal water reserves and river flows across the Middle East in 2025.
WMO’s 2025 assessment measured water held above and below ground, including groundwater, soil moisture, rivers, reservoirs, snow and ice. Its global measure has generally moved down since 2014-2016. The organization also found that Middle Eastern river flows were below or much below normal last year, with repeated low-flow conditions in some areas over 2021-2025. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “We are depleting that savings account,” referring to long-term reserves.
For October through December 2026, the Arab Climate Outlook Forum projects rainfall and temperatures above normal across most of the Arab region. It highlights a large rainfall anomaly over Middle Eastern countries in November. WMO said El Niño and other climate influences informed the outlook, which is intended to help climate-sensitive sectors and humanitarian organizations prepare for potentially exceptional rainfall.
The seasonal forecast concerns rainfall, while the assessment describes water held for longer periods. WMO notes that rainfall can shift over days or weeks, whereas groundwater and other stores accumulate or decline more slowly.
WMO’s September forecast put the likelihood of El Niño continuing through February 2027 at nearly 100%. A separate October seasonal outlook said tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures could reach 3.8 degrees Celsius above average during November 2026 through January 2027. El Niño’s effects vary with location, season and other ocean conditions, WMO says, so the event’s strength alone cannot determine whether a specific country will face drought or flooding. Regional forecasts are needed to assess local risks. EconoTimes previously covered the outlook’s food-security risks in other regions.
WMO scheduled the release of its 2026 climate update for Monday, Nov. 9, with a press conference at 7:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. UTC) in Antalya, Türkiye.
