WTI is likely to weaken beyond financial crisis low if key support gets cleared around $43/barrel

Today is the third day when WTI is testing key support area around $43/barrel and so far bulls haven't given in to gravity.

In spite of recent report from US Energy Information Administration (EIA) over slowdown in US oil production, global supply glut remains at large.

Russian state owned oil producer Rosneft announced there would be no cooperation deal with OPEC to cut back production. Moreover since weaker Rouble has pushed their oil production cost to less than $5/barrel, they are in good position to fight with OPEC.

With global cooperation broken Crude oil market is now facing an additional headwinds, slowdown in China. Crude market is now at twin risks, subdued demand and oversupply.

Trade idea

• Our short term long call to the upside has soured after reaching around $50, which was given around $45/barrel area, targeting $53/barrel area. Though our stop loss is still quite far away around $40-38/barrel area, we feel opportunity is now greater and attractive lining with fundamental and going short.
• Sell crude with break below $43/barrel area and sell at subsequent rallies targeting $34/barrel area with stop around $50/barrel area.